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September 2011 has been a terrible month as far as international boating accidents are concerned. Around 250 people died when a ferry capsized in Zanzibar; dozens died in a boating accident in the African nation of Ghana; and recently, 11 people have died, after a ferry boat sank near Shaoyang city's Fuyi River in China.
According to an article in the Chinese newspaper, Xinhua, "most of the deceased were students from primary and middle schools around the area. They were returning home for the upcoming Mid Autumn Festival, a traditional Chinese holiday for family reunions... 16 survivors are currently recovering at the People's Hospital in Shaoyang city."
Is there any pattern to these international boating accidents? Might they be connected in some way? From a strict, scientific point of view, this hypothesis seems absurd at best.
So why do we get the sense that the clustering of these boating accidents is less than random?
The answer has to do with both human psychology and the nature of randomness itself. Our minds are natural pattern seekers. We like to see patterns even if there are none present. It helps us explain things that confuse us. For instance, many people have reported seeing the face of the Mother Mary in old coffee grounds. Or even consider the phenomenon of the "man on the moon" - from a certain perspective, the moon appears to have human face painted on its surface.
The reality is that these patterns are indeed random. We are pattern-seeking machines, so when we see "accident clusters," we want to attribute agency. But the clustering of events in no way invalidates their randomness. If you flip a coin four times in a row and get heads every time, that doesn't mean the coin is weighted or tricked out. Indeed, random chance predicts that such an outcome will happen one out of every 32 times you flip a coin four times in a row.
For help understanding your maritime accident, connect with the team at Vujasinovic & Beckcom at www.maritimeaccidentattorney.com or (877) 724-7800.
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