Will the high seas become terrorism’s newest staging ground?, Part 1

The instability in Egypt has provoked fears that the Suez Canal could be shut down for an extended period of time, as it was in 1956-57 and ‘67 to ’75, when the Egyptians imposed a blockade which trapped 14 ships known as The Yellow Fleet. Were this to happen, it would wreak havoc upon world shipping, forcing vessels to go the long way around the Cape of Good Hope and noticeably pushing up oil prices. This would add up to two weeks of transit time.

The Suez Canal is just one of many heavily shipped narrow passages that would disrupt the flow of global commerce. Should terrorists launch attacks to jam up several of them at once it would be more than a disruption. It would be debilitating.

Despite the prevalence of Somali piracy over the past few years, many security analysts have downplayed the possibility of organized terrorist groups joining the mix. After all, al-Shabaab, the Islamic extremist organization based in Somalia, operates well south of the major lanes funneling ships between Europe and points east.

But recent reports ring a warning bell of al-Qaeda turning its eyes upon two of the world’s major shipping chokepoints by linking up with Somali pirate groups.

One of these chokepoints is the Bab al-Mandeb (BAM) Strait, which connects the Indian Ocean with the Red Sea and is the main trading lane between Europe and the Far East. About 20 miles wide at its narrowest point, it is logistically an inviting target to wreak havoc upon the 20-thousand ships and millions of barrels of oil passing through each year. Choking off the BAM would naturally cause a major disruption to the European oil market, potentially causing world energy prices to skyrocket.

An intelligence report cited in a New York State Office of Homeland Security newsletter says that an al-Qaeda cell based in Yemen known as al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is in fact making plans to take over the BAM, with the partnership of al-Shabaab.

Said al-Shiri, a former detainee at Guantanamo Bay and the AQAP number two ranking official, warned in a released audio tape that the BAM will be blocked off in order to choke the economic throat of Israel.

While military analysts do not believe that terrorists could actually take over control of the BAM, the capability exists to cause major havoc upon commercial shipping. Abu Bakr al-Kurbi, the Yemen Foreign Minister, believes it is very possible that this could be done Somali pirate style, with ships being hijacked, or by attacking them with missiles.

1 2